Ep. 254 Karl Marx Was Kind of a Big Deal: A Response to Magness and Makovi
Bob first explains the synthetic control method and then critiques a newly published paper by Magness and Makovi employing the technique. M&M argue that were it not for the 1917 Russian revolution, Marx would today be a minor figure. Bob sharply disagrees.
Mentioned in the Episode and Other Links of Interest:
- The Magness & Makovi paper on Marx.
- RECEIPTS for Bob’s claims.
- Their AIER summary post.
- Bob’s paper with Phil on Piketty.
- John Ganz critique, 1 and 2. Phil’s response to Ganz.
- Help support the Bob Murphy Show.
The audio production for this episode was provided by Podsworth Media.
About the author, Robert
Christian and economist, Chief Economist at infineo, and Senior Fellow with the Mises Institute.
Great episode, did Phil finish off with his classic blocking of everyone who corrects him? for a guy ostensibly on our side, I don’t know why he is so childish and dishonest on some issues, but it casts all his work into doubt. There are plenty of other academics that deserve our future attention.
Good discussion. Maybe you’d like my attempt at a short explanation for why democracy isn’t a solution.
“threat to our democracy” – one size fits all
https://0x0.st/ol7E.jpg
Almost a year ago, I watched Phil’s presentation of this article at the Francisco Marroquin University. He used some powerful rhetorical devices which, unfortunately, were powerful enough to throw me off his scent. I like to think I am not bad at catching these kinds of things. But I have to admit, at the time, I was too distracted by the size of the effect to recognize that a real base line was not set. As you explain with perfect clarity, setting the zero or the base line at whatever Marx’ mentions are prior to 1917 does not address the question of whether Marx was popular or not prior to 1917. If a seven-foot-tall man has a growth spurt, it does not follow that prior to the growth spurt the man was “short” even if the growth spurt was 50%, 100%, or even 1,000%. Anyway, despite my distraction by rhetoric and effect size, I would like to think that, if I had seen the controversy on twitter, I would have instantly grasped the error as I did upon listening to this episode, and that I would have come to Mr. Magness’ aid. By coming to his “aid”, I mean explaining his error to him. Unfortunately, this is all too often NOT how such things are received (if ever). Not to mention that if sound council from Bob Murphy can’t penetrate Mr. Magness’ pride (?) then surely mine will accomplish far less.
This Synthetic Control method seems to me just curve-fitting. Of course you can fit an infinite number of curves that match any given set of points; how do you know it’s one of the right ones that continue to match the future of the curve?
On Max Weber: the vowel is long and the W is pronounced like a V. So kinda like “Mux Vey-bor”. Actually kinda like “vapor” but with a B.
“They constructed a synthetic Karl Marx…”
-shudders-